Price estimates follow.
Please note that …-200/2.8 requires at least 1.4x converter to get near the same reach.
As you mount the converter you lose 1 stop, i.e. make the lens be …/4 effectively AND there is  image quality loss also.

$1600 for VR or
$2300 VR II, new Nikkor AF-S 70-200mm f/2.8 G ED VR II,  Photozone test on D3X.
$1000 (OS FLD) Sigma AF 70-200mm f/2.8 EX HSM APO DG macroNon OS on D200 @ photozone,  OS at dpreview.
$2400 Sigma 120-300/2.8 not OS, OS-version imminent? (Can’t expect the OS-version to be cheaper)
$1300 Nikkor AF 80-400mm f/4.5-5.6 ED VR D,  Test on DX (D200?) at Photozone.

$700 Tamron SP AF 70-200mm F2.8 Di LD (IF) Macro – is this an upgrade? …/2.8 says yes, does performance say the same?

Without checking the others I’d say that they’re not upgrades.